Deprecated: mysql_connect(): The mysql extension is deprecated and will be removed in the future: use mysqli or PDO instead in /home/federico/public_html/000/conexion_open.php on line 6

Warning: file(): https:// wrapper is disabled in the server configuration by allow_url_fopen=0 in /home/federico/public_html/000/odds.php on line 27

Warning: file(https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/datafeed/www.sportsbook.ag/eventfeed.xgi?action=getBetTrends&mode=0&categoryId=201): failed to open stream: no suitable wrapper could be found in /home/federico/public_html/000/odds.php on line 27

Warning: implode(): Invalid arguments passed in /home/federico/public_html/000/odds.php on line 27
NCAAB: StatFox Scuffle – Thursday Tourney Games

NCAAB: StatFox Scuffle – Thursday Tourney Games



NCAAB: StatFox Scuffle – Thursday Tourney Games

The Scuffle is a popular feature on StatFox.com


2008-03-24

The Scuffle is a popular feature on StatFox.com, and they’ve shared their tournament edition with us. Parlay the thoughts of Doug & Steve with the valuable information on the Betting Trends and Team Stats pages to enjoy a big day Thursday!

Sportsbook has odds, totals, futures, and other fun prop wagering opportunities available for every game and team in the tourney. The action all starts at 12:20 PM ET on Thursday morning. The madness is here!

Now, back to the StatFox Scuffle…

StatFox says:
Hello everybody and welcome back to a special tournament edition of the StatFox Scuffle. Our resident experts, or volunteers I suppose, Doug & Steve have been engrossed in tournament handicapping preparations for the last few days and are ready to share some of their thoughts. We will be covering the first round and perhaps some more general tourney thoughts in this Scuffle. It will be divided into two parts, Thursday and Friday. They will be looking at specific games, primarily those they can foresee upsets in, so it should be pretty fun. So without further delay I welcome back StatFox Doug and StatFox Steve. Good day gentlemen...

StatFox Doug says:
Welcome, good day Herb Sendek, Steve and readers. Coach Sendek, quality win against Alabama State in the NIT. I feel for you. We understand your pain and everyone blames Arizona for you being stuck with this job, but really it was Georgia who likely kept you out. NIT is better than CBI, right Steve?

StatFox Steve says:
Herb Sendek is with us today? Man, that's disappointing. I thought Myles Brand was going to be moderating our betting discussion of his tournament. Darn! Oh well, you know what isn't disappointing? The fact that it's tourney time and I get to square off with Doug again. After all the publication work we've done since Sunday, it's going to be a relief to sit down and enjoy the hoops.

StatFox Doug says:
Couldn't agree more Steve, what pops up on your plate first about Thursday's menu?

StatFox says:
Yeah, let's get to the discussion right away guys. First off Doug, do you have any thoughts or comments in general about this year's bracket? Strengths, weaknesses, etc?

StatFox Doug says:
Most everyone agrees the East has the four best teams and UCLA has what appears to be the path of least resistance to San Antonio. What I don't like is teams playing near home in the Regionals. Why should Texas play in Houston and North Carolina in Charlotte? Granted they still have to win and make it those locations, but that is a huge advantage, that should only be potentially available in the first two rounds for attendance purposes.

StatFox Steve says:
You know, I watched the bracket analysis shows seemingly all night on Sunday, and your thoughts echo those but my biggest two issues are all the hype that's been made about the so-called snubs again. I don't buy it. Let's face it, if you're #66 or deeper, you're not going far anyways. Looking at a team like Arizona State, they won a postseason game last night and have a shot at a deep run in the NIT. Consider yourself fortunate Herb. The other thing that came across to me and it expands on Doug's thought about the East is that the whole left side of the bracket is much stronger and deeper than the right. I actually planned on not picking UCLA to the Final Four but when I saw the Bracket, I thought it was a layup unfortuantely.

StatFox says:
Good thoughts guys. Any specific handicapping strategies you might suggest?

StatFox Doug says:
Yes Pick Winners. Truthfully, the two articles I wrote go more into what I look for. Your article on the various aspects of seeds and rounds is very helpful. I'll be honest, after the first round, I'm usually around .500. Some years good, some years not so good. The first round is normally the key for me. What about you?

StatFox Steve says:
Without trying to be too promotional myself, I'd suggest to read many of the articles we've posted this week or pick up our tourney guide as we go into expanded details there on some strategies. I will say this though, the tourney is typically an underdog dominated event. The results of last year (favs 80% SU, 60% ATS) were highly unusual. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a return to "normalcy", especially in the four days this weekend.

StatFox says:
With those thoughts in mind guys, why don't we start attacking some of these games, Doug, why don't you tip it off. Are there any games that stick out in Thursday's four West Region games? Upsets, potential blowouts, etc?

StatFox Doug says:
I have a game I'm all over. The Texas A&M Aggies were all over the pace the last six weeks, losing by 27 points twice with a 44-point win in the middle. BYU on the other hand, won the Mountain West, would have beaten UNLV for conference tourney on a neutral floor for the daily double. They shoot the ball well, make eight 3's a game and hold opponents to under 40 percent shooting on the road. I know how bad the MWC has been in the tournament, but the Cougars take down A&M as small dogs.

StatFox Steve says:
I'm glad to see you with so much conviction on that game because I was wavering on it due to the Mountain West tourney history. Actually, I have two specific West region games for Thursday that catch my eye. First, West Virginia's 10-0 ATS run in the tournament will be really tested by Arizona. I know in looking at the records most people will be down on the Cats' but I think they are a very talented team that is healthy at the right time. I actually give them a decent shot at reaching Phoenix. The other game that stands out is Georgia-Xavier. I believe this could be one of the bigger mismatches on Thursday's board. Georgia caught lightning in a bottle last weekend and could be one of the worst teams in the history of the tourney. Xavier is a solid disciplined squad that should easily win by double digits. Agree?

StatFox Doug says:
With you on Xavier. I love to bet against those teams winning four games in four days. Bet them every year, with greater emphasis if they are Sunday-Thursday turnaround. Way too much emotion lost. Not sold on Arizona. They are more talented than West Virginia and I like they are 4-2 ATS after shooting less then 40 percent this year. Still they don't lock down defend, Chase Budinger has been in 7 for 10 or 2-10 shooting pace. I Prefer the toughness of Mountaineers; however they can go stone cold shooting, I'll pass.

StatFox Steve says:
I think Arizona will be anxious to validate the respect they received from the selection committee, plus I'll take Pac 10 over the Big East across the board this year. Back to Xavier, this is an interesting situation favoring them: Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (XAVIER) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament. (22-4 since 1997.) (84.6%).

StatFox says:
Let's move on, Midwest Thursday…go ahead Doug.

StatFox Doug says:
Only two games in the bracket. I've seen Kent State and UNLV play four times. The Rebels are pretty good team, well coached with Lon Kruger, but not nearly as good as last year's team. Kent State has a bruising front court. They can pound it inside and dominate the glass. Al Fisher is a very sound guard who can and has won games on his own. The Golden Flashes won 12 of 18 on the road with 10 covers and is 11-2 ATS after 3 straight games where opponent grabbed 31 or less rebounds. The other is to play against Kansas State. They closed 2-5, it has become Michael Beasley and the Gang that can't shoot straight. Defensive intensity has been replaced by a cape for matadors. USC by 10.

StatFox Steve says:
I share similar thoughts to you here Doug. My only fear with Kent State is that I get leery when worse seeds are favored. However, seeing as how UNLV already made its tourney run last year and Kent State is really getting after it defensively of late, I too will give them the nod. With USC, I look to one particular stat to see all I need: Road Defensive FG%. USC is 38.4%, KSU is 46.7%. That is a HEFTY margin and explains why the Wildcats were 1-9 ATS on the road vs. good teams (+4 PPG scoring differential) this year. USC is deeper and will devise a plan to stuff the big fella. However, I will disagree with the so-called experts who have indicated USC has too much "firepower" for Wisconsin in the 2nd round.

StatFox Doug says:
Steady there Badger Boy, don't get ahead of yourself. Take a bite out of that bratwurst and settle down. Anything else in Midwest , or what do you see heading South?

StatFox Steve says:
Badger Boy is drinking some very red Kool-Aid this year. This Wisconsin team is beaming with confidence and winning games. They have a much better shot as a #3 than last year as a #2 simply because of the way they closed the season. Heading South, I have one question for you...seeing as how you like to fade 4-game teams from the conference tourneys, do you believe Oral Roberts can take down Pitt?

StatFox Doug says:
No, just cover. Pittsburgh is back to playing like they were in December. They have many positive components and in truth Oral Roberts is not as good as last season. Here is one question, what would have Pitt's seed say they would win one game not four? Probably six is my guess. This tells me they are overseeded. Next after the aforementioned emotion of beating Big East rivals, does ORU fire them up? I have the +9.5 in my pocket and expecting to collect. A mutual friend of ours in the business sent me this. In the first round Play Against any team off three straight covers and last one was by more than 6 points. These teams: 2-23 ATS.

StatFox Steve says:
That is a very interesting observation about Pitt's overseeding. I firmly believe this is true and wouldn't be surprised to see a nailbiter here. Numbers-wise, this isn't the same Panthers team as we're used to. Defensively, they are suspect and free throw shooting is a concern as well. Meanwhile Oral Roberts is making its third straight tourney appearance, and this third time could be a charm. Elsewhere down south, I like Marquette's chances to beat Kentucky rather easily. The Golden Eagles strength is on the perimeter and as John Thompson says, "this tourney is about guard play". Kentucky's strength is 3PT shooting, Marquette is #1 in the country in 3PT defense. It's not a good matchup for the 'Cats. I expect to see them pressured just as they were by Houston's guards earlier this year

StatFox Doug says:
From talent perspective I agree, yet not sure about spread. Golden Eagles (nice nickname -wimps) are dynamic when guards play well like they always do against my Irish, however Kentucky defense can be sticky. Wildcats are playing Billy G ball and are 6-1 ATS off a loss. Lean with Big Blue. One more note in the South, I'll casually mention this Temple beats Michigan State. Like that don't you?

StatFox Steve says:
As concerned as I was when I saw Michigan State secure a #5 seed, I hate when it seems everyone is picking an upset. I like big game Drew Neitzel to get it done.

StatFox Doug says:
Forget 12 x 5 talk, the Owls were a hootin' 8-1 in last nine and were 11-8 and 13-6 ATS on the road. Send me email proclaiming how smart I am when this comes in.

StatFox says:
Are we ready to finish up Thursday with the East Region games?

StatFox Doug says:
Out East, I think Indiana is out quicker than a Kelvin Sampson dropped call. I expect Eric Gorden to be a NBA camp by Saturday after declaring for next level.

StatFox Steve says:
Wow, that's some strong stuff about Indiana. Aren't you the guy who says you need NBA talent on a team to make a tournament run?

StatFox Doug says:
Yes, but with purpose and desire, elements that disappeared with Sampson calling plan.

StatFox Steve says:
I see. I'll make a pick near to your heart...Notre Dame will dispose of George Mason, methodically and definitively. In betting terms, I would give the 6.5 points with no regrets. This is NOT the same George Mason team from 2006. This one lost double-digit games and is well below .500 ATS. The Irish are a solid club with very few weaknesses. They are also disciplined enough to avoid being tested here.

StatFox Doug says:
They should, however the lack of quickness hurts when the shots don't fall. One final thought question on Thursday, Baylor or Purdue?

StatFox Steve says:
You know, had Purdue made a run in the Big Ten tourney, I would have been all over Baylor here. However, seeing as how the Boilermakers were already upset, I give them a better chance to survive here. However, they will have to control the pace of this game. If it starts getting up & down, advantage: Baylor.

StatFox Doug says:
I've been surprised Baylor has been mentioned as upset honestly, allowing 77. 4 PPG away from wonderful Waco.



College Basketball News

Click here to read latest College Basketball news